Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 10.821896 13.272992 16.013488 19.284655 23.062120 27.266334 32.277535
2026-02-01 7.356310 10.473586 14.358694 19.468594 25.917458 33.687856 43.651270
2026-02-08 5.245304 8.468819 12.859480 19.087978 27.487089 38.200675 52.651606
2026-02-15 3.821469 6.937157 11.536857 18.506167 28.442866 41.720982 60.367629
2026-02-22 3.097100 6.222187 11.160172 19.054784 30.818569 47.113369 70.705957
2026-03-01 2.386595 5.335071 10.331089 18.757433 31.863274 50.648297 78.634436
2026-03-08 1.905169 4.714848 9.795103 18.787171 33.310761 54.751930 87.481350
2026-03-15 1.419995 3.945269 8.852186 18.000444 33.374348 56.773750 93.387600
2026-03-22 1.201730 3.664130 8.726611 18.546082 35.544055 62.001582 104.150994
2026-03-29 0.995478 3.347307 8.471426 18.813623 37.247232 66.571943 114.104573
2026-04-05 0.834711 3.089758 8.284242 19.166315 39.090993 71.422398 124.651607
2026-04-12 0.704698 2.869562 8.132909 19.555748 41.002317 76.445626 135.635709
2026-04-19 0.534741 2.483901 7.578957 19.159927 41.616828 79.601675 144.183284
2026-04-26 0.430350 2.255635 7.344409 19.383576 43.378294 84.762317 156.178422
2026-05-03 0.321853 1.953225 6.858590 19.007087 43.976548 87.980732 165.169381
2026-05-10 0.231961 1.659934 6.319537 18.427422 44.114865 90.387356 172.900304
2026-05-17 0.193423 1.560633 6.285643 18.974215 46.474366 96.740220 187.352535
2026-05-24 0.142735 1.361835 5.913703 18.677860 47.116946 100.079783 196.881278
2026-05-31 0.109580 1.225013 5.692255 18.707498 48.411132 104.625309 208.587234
2026-06-07 0.072615 1.017174 5.177032 17.923418 47.932785 105.906274 214.738406
2026-06-14 0.059867 0.964302 5.177323 18.467218 50.313432 112.550523 230.365845
2026-06-21 0.046755 0.889941 5.079140 18.733862 52.103922 118.157259 244.349299
2026-06-28 0.036896 0.829281 5.015606 19.085375 54.099924 124.224516 259.320048